Hamas’s attack on Israel is complicating an already treacherous geopolitical outlook for President Joe Biden as he ramps up his campaign for reelection next year.
The prospect of months of bloody battle is certain to keep in focus the difficult trade-offs and unfulfilled ambitions Biden faces in the Middle East — notably Saudi-Israeli normalization — at a time when he would prefer to highlight economic victories, infrastructure building and Republican disarray.
Last month’s deal to secure the release of American detainees in Iran in exchange for $6 billion in revenue for Tehran — a long-time supporter of militant groups waging war against Israel — has become fodder for critics.
While US officials have said they have seen no evidence of Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack, the argument that providing money for Iran’s social services frees up other funding for militant groups is difficult to counter.
Despite Biden’s full-throated support for Israel, in the recent past his administration kept Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who enjoyed a cozy relationship with former President Donald Trump, at arm’s length.
The decision reflected both distaste for his government — the most right-wing in Israel’s history — and the complex nature of Biden’s base, which includes both a large bloc of urban Jewish voters as well as young liberals sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians.
Since the crisis, Biden has called Netanyahu at least three times to coordinate a response and sent a six-vessel aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean.
Then there is the Ukraine factor and the resistance by conservative Republicans to approve more military aid to Kyiv to thwart Russia’s invasion.
Many lawmakers hope they’ll be able to push through a spending package that includes both countries, but others have suggested diverting Ukraine funding to Israel.
The risk for Biden is that world events largely beyond his control may distract from his domestic achievements, and upend his campaign for another term in the White House. — Justin Sink
Some View on the World 
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