The Frontpage of The Telegraph for Tuesday 2023 January 31

By Sam Hall The UK’s growth forecast has been downgraded by the IMF to leave it languishing behind even sanctions-hit Russia. The new projection means the country is on course to be the only major economy to shrink this year. In other news, the Princess of Wales launched her campaign on early childhood at a Bafta event last night.

UK economy predicted to shrink after tax raid

The UK is on course to be the only major economy to shrink this year owing to Jeremy Hunt’s tax raid and higher borrowing costs, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF downgraded its 2023 UK growth forecast by more than any other G7 nation, blaming the prospect of a deeper recession on “tighter fiscal and monetary policies”. Our economics editor Szu Ping Chan writes that it leaves the UK economy languishing behind Germany and even sanctions-hit Russia, with both countries expected to eke out modest growth this year. The Fund singled out the UK as the only big economy in the advanced or developing world set to suffer a contraction, with a predicted decline of 0.6 per cent in 2023. This is down from its previous projection of 0.3 per cent growth just three months ago and means the UK will go from being the fastest growing G7 economy in 2022 to the only economy expected to shrink this year. The IMF said the downgrade reflected higher taxes and interest rates, a government spending squeeze and “financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices” that will “weigh on household budgets”. PS: Figures published today forecast that house prices will fall by an average of 12 per cent this year, but buying agents have predicted that some areas will remain “recession-proof”.

Halt crossings or face defeat, Braverman tells Tories The Tories will not be forgiven if they do not stop Channel migrant crossings, Suella Braverman has warned the party. In an interview with The Telegraph, the Home Secretary said the Government needed to halt the small boat crossings if the Conservatives were to win the next election. She said the party’s reputation for competence was “on the line”, issuing a rallying call for MPs to unite behind plans to halt the crossings in the face of “formidable forces” that she said would seek to stop them. Charles Hymas writes that ministers anticipate major opposition in the Lords and a surge of court challenges to a new Bill that would give the Government powers to bar migrants who arrive illegally from claiming asylum in the UK.

King may let anointing be seen by the public The King could become the first monarch in British history to be publicly anointed at his Coronation, with a transparent canopy being specially made for the May 6 ceremony. Traditionally, the most sacred part of the event – when the Archbishop of Canterbury pours holy oil from the ampulla onto the Coronation Spoon, and anoints the sovereign on the hands, breast and head – is not seen by the public. In previous years, including Queen Elizabeth II’s Coronation in 1953, a canopy of cloth-of-gold was held over the monarch’s head for the anointing to protect their privacy, writes Camilla Tominey. But The Telegraph understands that an alternative canopy, with a see-through top, is being made to give the King the option of allowing the anointing to be caught on camera for the very first time.

On Wednesday, Britain faces the biggest day of industrial action in over a decade with strikes by an estimated 500,000 workers across seven unions set to bring the economy to a halt.

Also in the news this morning Royals | The Princess of Wales outlined her vision for a major new public awareness campaign about the importance of early childhood on Monday evening, warning that it is “essential” to understand how the first five years shape the adults we become. The Princess, accompanied by Prince William, attended a launch event at Bafta, where she introduced the long-term campaign that will form the foundation of her future work.

British Army | Budget boost amid concerns troops overstretched Dominic Raab | Calls for Deputy PM to resign amid bullying claims Brexit | Don’t scrap powers for a quick Brexit deal, Sunak told Crime | Failed asylum seeker killed 87-year-old who gave him a home NHS | Hospital consultants could join strikes as union holds vote

Around the world: Russians close in on Chasiv Yar

If Bakhmut is a boulder slowly vanishing under the Russian tide, Chasiv Yar is the next rock up the beach: mostly dry, but already lapped by the breakers. For more than six months the Russians have battered themselves against Bakhmut, seven miles to the east of here, reports Roland Oliphant from Chasiv Yar. They have taken tremendous casualties in exchange for a snail’s pace advance. But in the past couple of weeks, they have made progress. Inside the city, the sound of automatic fire is now mixing with the persistent shelling as the front creeps closer.

Two women at the ‘point of invincibility’ – a ground floor room with electricity, heat and phone signal Credit: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph

Comment and analysis

Sherelle Jacobs | Dead white men don’t deserve this ‘Anti-racist’ hyperbole has become a convenient excuse not to properly examine our own history > Evil “whiteness” stuff is getting out of hand + White versus black in a woke world Tim Stanley | Sorry Rishi, but Nadhim Zahawi stole your NHS show Iain Dale | I’m not going to be the last driver to give up his electric car Celia Walden | Office ‘perks’ are turning workforce into babies Letters | Yet another health secretary hopes technology will save NHS

Editor’s choice

	TV | The psychedelic fungus from history that found its way into our food and sent thousands ‘mad’ The apocalyptic TV series The Last of Us may be fiction but the consequences of populations ingesting a mind-altering fungus are very real
	Fashion | How Alexander McQueen changed the world of fashion – by the people who knew him best
	Global Health | These politicians banned alcohol – now poisonous hooch is killing thousands The world’s largest prohibition experiment since the 1920s pushed liquor production underground. The consequences have been disastrous

Business briefing: Musk to take on PayPal Elon Musk is going head to head with his old company PayPal as Twitter gears up to become an online payments business. The social media company has been applying for payments processing licences across the US as well as hiring people to start building a payments system. Twitter’s director of product management, Esther Crawford, is in charge of the operation to turn the social media website into a PayPal rival, the Financial Times reported. In November Twitter registered with the US Treasury as a payments processor, according to regulatory filings.

Here is a selection of articles we think you’ll be interested in today.

Why Singapore is on alert for a record-breaking year of disease Jane Austen novel given ‘gender stereotyping’ trigger warning BBC impartiality at risk because journalists ‘lack understanding of basic economics’ Woman mauled to death by dogs in Surrey is named Dog walker died from multiple dog bites to the neck, inquest hears A dog walker died from multiple animal bites to the neck, an inquest has heard. Natasha Johnston, 28, died from “multiple penetrating dog bites to the neck” and a wound to her jugular vein, Surrey Coroner’s Court heard. Read more

Findings of the Nadhim Zahawi tax affairs investigation – in full Nicola Sturgeon about-turns over transgender prisoners Nadhim Zahawi sacked by Rishi Sunak without a fair hearing, say allies Exclusive: ‘Hypocrite’ Keir Starmer benefited from private school charity Violent trans criminals are women, Nicola Sturgeon says