Instead of letting the moribund NATO do its thing, Putin was so afraid of the democracy that was beginning to flourish in Ukraine that he decided to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022, thinking that no one would do anything except a few words of indignation.
Putin underestimated NATO, the West, and the Ukrainians while overestimating his weak and unmotivated army.
In the end, Putin is getting his worst nightmare and has locked himself into a strategy from which he cannot escape, or else he will be humiliated in front of his people and end up losing their consent. Even people who have been trained by strong propaganda and oppressed would not be able to bear to find out that Putin has started a useless war for the sake of his ego.
The end of Putin has already begun. The beginning of the end is known: February 24, 2022. The exact date of his fall is yet to be determined.
Christian Benesch replies
“Putin underestimated NATO, the West, and the Ukrainians while overestimating his weak and unmotivated army.”
Absolutely true. But to be honest even the West itself underestimated the reaction of the US and Europe and the resistance of Ukrainians.
For me, as a Finn, it was obvious that Ukrainians were going to fight like hell. Nothing unifies a nation like an existential threat.
There are 40 million of them. There were 4 million of us in 1939.
Putin didn’t bring anywhere near enough troops to occupy such a large country as Ukraine.
I actually thought that Ukraine had a decent chance.
Maybe the West has a tendency to overestimate Russia’s abilities? It’s surrounded by myths, mystique, fear and hype that Russia’s neighbors simply don’t respond to the same way.
Has Russia ever had any other advantage in war than brute force? Lots of men and weapons to throw at its opponents?
Not going for full mobilization may turn against Putin. Tactically demanding SMOs aren’t in his wheelhouse.
Tbh when Russia invaded I thought within a few months most major Ukrainian cities would be occupied and a puppet leader would be installed in the Capital and Russia would be fighting a war against Ukrainian resistance fighters supplied by the west.
The invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with either NATO or Nazis. It’s about Ukraines resources especially it’s agricultural and INDUSTRIAL potential. Make no mistake, Ukraine can become a major, major player on the world stage. Even a cursory study of present and future Russian Demographiccs make very unsettling reading for Russia hierarchy without Ukraine and if Ukraine was to become included within the Russian Domain as part of the Russian Federation it hugely alters Russian place in the world especially economically from a relatively minor player to a very major one. That’s why the West cannot afford Ukraine to fall
Looking at it logically Ukraine was perhaps THE most important member of the USSR. Ukraine provided a great deal of the advance tech and design of the Soviet Union [ you can do a bit of checking on the web] as well as being it’s undoubted breadbasket.
As we have now seen that between 40 and 50 MILLION TONS of grain per annum not to mention vegetable oils means something. Now imagine that PUTIN controls that amount of grain as well as his oil and gas .